Sun, Dec 8, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Arizona Coyotes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 116 | 211 | 017 | 03 | 2 | 447 |
| CHI | 311 | 09 | 05 | 04 | 1 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Calvin de Haan · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:40CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P1 11:00ARIChristian FischerAssists: Christian Dvorak, Nick Schmaltz · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–2
- P1 17:55CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Connor Murphy, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 6:32ARIConor GarlandPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 8:53ARICarl SoderbergPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. ARI Nick Schmaltz scored
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 4. ARI Conor Garland scored
- 5. CHI Kirby Dach stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:13ARIJason Demers: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:29CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P2 5:10CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:01CHIDennis Gilbert: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 7:01CHIDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:01CHIDennis Gilbert: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:01ARIJason Demers: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:28CHISlater Koekkoek: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:34CHICalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- OT 2:00ARINick Schmaltz: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:35CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Dvorak – Fischer10:40
xG 0.78–0.11 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Keller10:44
xG 0.27–0.45 (37%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Garland6:43
xG 0.39–0.62 (38%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Kessel – Crouse9:27
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun16:53
xG 1.25–0.55 (69%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin12:08
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson12:05
xG 0.52–0.77 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Carpenter – Dach7:23
xG 0.47–0.23 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Sikura – Nylander – Kampf7:43
xG 0.51–0.33 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Kubalik12:24
xG 0.68–0.68 (50%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat16:09
xG 0.22–0.77 (22%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKoekkoek – Gustafsson2:01
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Seabrook – de Haan13:20
xG 0.76–0.43 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson4:29
xG 0.18–0.06 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).