Mon, Dec 9, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 5, Colorado Avalanche 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 210 | 211 | 12 | 533 |
| COL | 19 | 112 | 211 | 00 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:32COLRyan GravesAssists: Joonas Donskoi, J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 9:33CGYDerek RyanAssists: Oliver Kylington, Dillon Dube · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 10:04COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Ryan Graves, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 16:04CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 0:12CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 1:39CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Tobias Rieder, Mark Jankowski · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 3:59COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Matt Calvert, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 10:45COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 2:09CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Dillon Dube, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.32 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:14CGYOliver Kylington: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:18COLAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min
- P2 12:06CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:57COLMark Barberio: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38COLVladislav Kamenev: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Rieder – Jankowski7:11
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan8:05
xG 0.19–0.17 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Lucic – Gaudreau – Ryan3:04
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube8:52
xG 0.07–0.11 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin16:45
xG 0.77–0.45 (63%)attempts 18–19goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington12:08
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Giordano – Brodie14:41
xG 0.28–1.06 (21%)attempts 7–27goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Nichushkin – Bellemare8:27
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Donskoi – Burakovsky – Compher6:38
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:28
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Calvert – Kamenev – Jost5:42
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Graves13:22
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 17–11goals 3–0
- Zadorov – Girard15:40
xG 0.83–0.72 (53%)attempts 20–19goals 0–2
- Cole – Zadorov2:20
xG 0.10–0.01 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).