Tue, Dec 10, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Calgary Flames 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 210 | 214 | 15 | 529 |
| ARI | 015 | 116 | 117 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Zac Rinaldo · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 4:03CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 5:28CGYZac RinaldoGWGAssists: Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 14:18CGYSean MonahanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 19:49ARIJakob ChychrunUnassisted · Slap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 14:32CGYMilan LucicPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.18 xG5–1
- P3 19:28ARIPhil KesselPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.30 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 17:57ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:02ARIDerek Stepan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:02CGYSean Monahan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:26ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:35ARIConor Garland: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:57CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Rinaldo – Jankowski10:03
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Rieder – Lindholm – Mangiapane11:08
xG 0.34–0.33 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Backlund – Monahan – Dube9:57
xG 0.29–0.48 (37%)attempts 5–20goals 1–0
- Lucic – Gaudreau – Ryan13:27
xG 0.42–0.70 (37%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin15:45
xG 0.73–0.44 (63%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Stone – Brodie15:24
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Brodie2:44
xG 0.01–0.41 (3%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Dvorak – Fischer9:39
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Kessel – Crouse13:08
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 16–9goals 0–2
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Garland4:08
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Keller10:54
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun20:04
xG 1.38–0.64 (68%)attempts 30–16goals 1–2
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin16:23
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 24–11goals 0–1
- Ness – Oesterle15:15
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).