Wed, Dec 11, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Ottawa Senators 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 012 | 014 | 211 | 00 | 237 |
| MTL | 111 | 09 | 18 | 11 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:36MTLNick CousinsPPAssists: Max Domi, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 0:29MTLTomas TatarAssists: Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 4:30OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 13:05OTTConnor BrownAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 1:11MTLBen ChiarotGWGAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 11:59OTTCody Goloubef: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:08MTLMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P2 7:39OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:39MTLShea Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:39OTTAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:24MTLJoel Armia: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:52OTTColin White: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:34MTLJoel Armia: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:50OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:08MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:16MTLTomas Tatar: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:27MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Brown – Davidsson3:51
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Ennis – White6:23
xG 0.10–0.07 (59%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair4:47
xG 0.07–0.11 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk10:41
xG 0.36–0.80 (31%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Zaitsev11:10
xG 0.36–0.09 (81%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Chabot14:13
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Chabot3:26
xG 0.02–0.01 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Barber – Poehling7:03
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Domi7:52
xG 0.12–0.13 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Weal – Cousins – Suzuki8:44
xG 0.12–0.21 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:42
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot13:35
xG 1.23–0.30 (80%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Fleury3:46
xG 0.08–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Weber – Leskinen4:13
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).