Thu, Dec 12, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 112 | 015 | 339 |
| BUF | 115 | 29 | 18 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 14:33BUFJimmy VeseyAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 15:32NSHColton SissonsAssists: Ryan Ellis · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 4:55BUFJack EichelAssists: Sam Reinhart, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:21BUFJack EichelAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P2 16:07NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 8:29BUFVictor OlofssonGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:50BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:08BUFMarco Scandella: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:15NSHMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Johansen – Forsberg13:12
xG 0.82–0.69 (54%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons2:20
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Turris – Duchene – Granlund13:43
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi10:53
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis16:23
xG 1.06–0.73 (59%)attempts 21–17goals 1–0
- Ellis – Ekholm3:25
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber11:09
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Skinner – Rodrigues2:17
xG 0.37–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons11:27
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Johansson – Skinner – Vesey9:05
xG 0.22–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Asplund2:34
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Montour4:12
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Montour – Dahlin5:04
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Miller – McCabe2:51
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).