Thu, Dec 12, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 14 | 012 | 113 | 229 |
| TBL | 07 | 114 | 210 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 12:35TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 4:07TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.38 xG1–2
- P3 15:13TBLSteven StamkosGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 16:45BOSJohn MooreAssists: Anders Bjork, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:27TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:27BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:44BOSJohn Moore: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:12TBLRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P2 4:48BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:48TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:29BOSJohn Moore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:43BOSSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:28TBLSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Wagner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Coyle – DeBrusk2:50
xG 0.26–0.10 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Krejci – Ritchie – DeBrusk7:48
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:47
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
- Coyle – Heinen – Bjork7:28
xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Grzelcyk6:38
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:24
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo3:19
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point12:55
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Joseph – Stephens7:26
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli12:01
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette8:30
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev14:10
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:04
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Hedman – Rutta14:58
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).