Thu, Dec 12, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 3, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 212 | 19 | 330 |
| FLA | 08 | 112 | 013 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:49NYIDevon ToewsPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:40NYIMathew BarzalPPGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.30 xG2–0
- P2 9:36FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Mark Pysyk, Brett Connolly · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:57NYIAnders LeeENUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:15NYIJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:42FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:07FLAVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:02FLABrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:02NYIAnders Lee: Instigator2 min
- P2 11:02NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:02NYIAnders Lee: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:25FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:09FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:06NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Johnston – Barzal8:23
xG 0.75–0.31 (71%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Eberle – Lee4:13
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Dal Colle2:09
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier3:19
xG 0.02–0.05 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Pulock3:36
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson3:23
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Toews6:47
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Connolly – Trocheck11:36
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Boyle – Sceviour – Toninato5:25
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:28
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Acciari – Malgin9:40
xG 0.18–0.36 (34%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Brown5:51
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Ekblad4:30
xG 0.21–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Weegar – Ekblad5:34
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).