Sat, Dec 14, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Boston Bruins 4, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 122 | 210 | 110 | 442 |
| FLA | 011 | 011 | 211 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:41BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Charlie McAvoy, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:14BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Torey Krug · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 7:30BOSDavid PastrnakPPGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–0
- P3 2:46FLAMark PysykAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
- P3 9:13FLAKeith YandleAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 17:50BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.57 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:10BOSAnders Bjork: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:13FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:03BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Interference2 min
- P1 18:39FLABrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:50FLAVincent Trocheck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:29FLAAaron Ekblad: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:37BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Coyle – DeBrusk13:03
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:27
xG 0.93–0.33 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Heinen – Bjork8:09
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly2:03
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Grzelcyk7:03
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Chara – Carlo3:17
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy16:48
xG 0.86–0.86 (50%)attempts 14–25goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Malgin9:48
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Connolly – Vatrano9:20
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Barkov16:32
xG 0.67–1.04 (39%)attempts 21–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Weegar12:11
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad2:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad2:08
xG 0.08–0.04 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).