Sat, Dec 14, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
New Jersey Devils 2, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 09 | 113 | 233 |
| ARI | 110 | 013 | 09 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Michael McLeod, Miles Wood · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 15:35ARIAlex GoligoskiPPAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 11:34NJDKyle PalmieriGWGAssists: Michael McLeod, Miles Wood · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:33NJDP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:38NJDP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 19:50ARIAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:29ARINick Schmaltz: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:23NJDWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:29ARIClayton Keller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hischier6:37
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev7:12
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Wood – McLeod – Boqvist7:21
xG 0.29–0.27 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Zacha – Hughes7:31
xG 0.25–0.74 (25%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Subban14:05
xG 0.86–0.44 (66%)attempts 14–19goals 2–0
- Severson – Mueller13:35
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Butcher9:14
xG 0.25–0.49 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Hinostroza – Keller8:41
xG 1.04–0.13 (89%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Dvorak – Fischer5:20
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Keller2:47
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Fischer2:13
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNess – Oesterle12:45
xG 0.68–0.27 (71%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin12:42
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:50
xG 0.46–0.84 (35%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).