Tue, Dec 17, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 28 | 07 | 02 | 328 |
| TBL | 212 | 114 | 09 | 15 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:27TBLNikita KucherovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:05OTTMark BorowieckiPPAssists: Chris Tierney, Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:22TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Yanni Gourde, Patrick Maroon · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 3:32TBLBrayden PointAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 4:01OTTConnor BrownSHAssists: Erik Brannstrom, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 15:46OTTAnthony DuclairSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 4:41TBLAnthony CirelliSHGWGAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:23TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:32TBLCarter Verhaeghe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:11OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 9:51TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Duclair – Paul4:35
xG 0.46–0.18 (72%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Ennis – Paul4:16
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- White – Beaudin – Brown9:58
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk14:04
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Chabot2:56
xG 0.05–0.21 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Brannstrom12:14
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Chabot22:56
xG 0.67–1.04 (39%)attempts 13–30goals 1–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Gourde – Paquette10:33
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point11:14
xG 0.78–0.38 (67%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli14:48
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point2:46
xG 0.10–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak13:52
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta15:09
xG 0.94–0.65 (59%)attempts 24–11goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Rutta2:31
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).