Tue, Dec 17, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Arizona Coyotes 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 15 | 16 | 18 | 319 |
| SJS | 18 | 111 | 09 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57ARICarl SoderbergAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 17:26SJSTomas HertlAssists: Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:11ARIDerek StepanAssists: Lawson Crouse, Vinnie Hinostroza · Slap, 0.37 xG2–1
- P2 13:55SJSTomas HertlAssists: Brent Burns · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 17:23ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonGWGAssists: Taylor Hall · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:04SJSKevin Labanc: Holding2 min
- P2 16:03SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:38ARIJakob Chychrun: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:54SJSEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:17ARIBrad Richardson: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 19:01ARIIlya Lyubushkin: Playing without a helmet2 min
- P3 19:16ARIBrad Richardson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Hinostroza – Crouse11:09
xG 0.81–0.14 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Schmaltz – Keller11:35
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Kessel – Hall – Dvorak11:50
xG 0.32–0.56 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Richardson – Grabner – Garland5:56
xG 0.13–0.47 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Lyubushkin13:14
xG 0.96–0.35 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Ness – Oesterle11:52
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun17:10
xG 0.47–1.02 (31%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Sorensen – Goodrow8:50
xG 0.46–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – Hertl – Labanc5:12
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Couture – Kane – Meier14:21
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Thornton – Hertl – Karlsson3:21
xG 0.05–0.13 (27%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson15:06
xG 0.53–0.29 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon13:40
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 17–6goals 1–2
- Heed – Middleton8:16
xG 0.73–0.74 (50%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).