Thu, Dec 19, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Dallas Stars 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 420 |
| TBL | 217 | 114 | 016 | 01 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:58TBLMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:24TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 3:22TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Kevin Shattenkirk · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 17:57DALRadek FaksaAssists: John Klingberg, Denis Gurianov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 15:42DALJason DickinsonAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 3:00DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:17TBLCarter Verhaeghe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:28DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:11DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:01DALAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 12:08DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:08TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Cogliano – Faksa9:52
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Janmark – Dickinson3:40
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Dickinson – Gurianov2:45
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Janmark – Dickinson3:17
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Sekera – Polak12:31
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell17:06
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 12–22goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen15:03
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Gourde – Paquette9:56
xG 0.84–0.06 (93%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point13:43
xG 0.74–0.22 (77%)attempts 21–6goals 1–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli14:03
xG 0.65–0.23 (74%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Johnson – Verhaeghe – Stephens7:26
xG 0.40–0.50 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak15:45
xG 1.18–0.12 (91%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev13:45
xG 1.09–0.17 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Hedman – Rutta17:05
xG 0.50–0.79 (39%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).