Thu, Dec 19, 2019·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Minnesota Wild 8, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 413 | 413 | 833 |
| ARI | 117 | 112 | 311 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:14ARIPhil KesselAssists: Taylor Hall, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 2:00MINRyan DonatoAssists: Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:25MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Carson Soucy, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 9:46ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 11:11MINRyan HartmanAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 18:15MINEric StaalAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Brad Hunt · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–2
- P3 0:48ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 3:22ARIJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 4:22MINBrad HuntAssists: Jordan Greenway, Nico Sturm · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
- P3 4:57MINMats ZuccarelloGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.15 xG6–4
- P3 5:23ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–5
- P3 11:16MINRyan SuterAssists: Marcus Foligno, Ryan Hartman · Backhand, 0.17 xG7–5
- P3 19:51MINLuke KuninENAssists: Zach Parise, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.66 xG8–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:42ARIChristian Fischer: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 3:21MINBrad Hunt: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:58ARITaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:58MINCarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:17ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:15MINCarson Soucy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:43MINKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:23MINVictor Rask: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 7:58MINEric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:58ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Sturm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Rask – Hartman11:12
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–13goals 3–1
- Staal – Parise – Zuccarello11:23
xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Greenway – Kunin – Sturm8:03
xG 0.17–0.12 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Fiala – Donato5:45
xG 0.00–0.44 (1%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon15:05
xG 0.91–0.58 (61%)attempts 17–23goals 3–2
- Brodin – Soucy14:44
xG 1.08–0.83 (57%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
- Hunt – Dumba10:51
xG 0.55–0.37 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Hall – Dvorak11:19
xG 0.98–0.25 (80%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Crouse10:03
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Schmaltz – Keller7:42
xG 0.26–0.95 (22%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Richardson – Grabner – Fischer8:04
xG 0.09–0.92 (8%)attempts 3–12goals 0–4
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Lyubushkin7:38
xG 0.23–0.02 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun15:01
xG 0.83–0.91 (48%)attempts 22–13goals 0–2
- Ness – Oesterle4:11
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).