Sat, Dec 21, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 115 | 411 | 532 |
| COL | 112 | 210 | 09 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01COLRyan GravesAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Tyson Jost · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:21CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 2:40COLMatt CalvertAssists: Tyson Jost, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 19:09COLMatt CalvertAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 11:22CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 11:50CHIKirby DachAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 16:43CHIDominik KubalikGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Dennis Gilbert · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:21CHIConnor MurphyENAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.44 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:47CHIOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:40COLRyan Graves: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:30COLGabriel Landeskog: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:30CHIDennis Gilbert: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:34COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:41CHIMatthew Highmore: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:59CHIDennis Gilbert: Holding2 min
- P3 12:07COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Kubalik6:07
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 3–0
- Carpenter – DeBrincat – Dach8:40
xG 0.12–0.02 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Smith – Highmore – Kampf8:22
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Sikura3:42
xG 0.03–0.15 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gustafsson12:11
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Keith – Murphy2:23
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Gilbert2:05
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare7:45
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky9:23
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Nieto – Compher – Jost3:20
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:39
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Graves13:37
xG 0.74–0.23 (76%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
- Zadorov – Girard14:05
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 0–2
- Johnson – Zadorov2:58
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).