Sun, Dec 22, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Arizona Coyotes 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 215 | 113 | 217 | 545 |
| DET | 010 | 07 | 213 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:25ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:43ARIClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 0:39ARICarl SoderbergGWGAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–0
- P3 5:41ARITaylor HallAssists: Jordan Oesterle, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P3 9:59DETFilip ZadinaAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.19 xG4–1
- P3 10:26ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jordan Gross · Deflected, 0.10 xG5–1
- P3 15:31DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Alex Biega, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:34ARIPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:56ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:14ARIAlex Goligoski: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Schmaltz – Keller12:55
xG 1.15–0.35 (77%)attempts 13–11goals 3–0
- Stepan – Hinostroza – Crouse11:53
xG 0.70–0.24 (75%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Hall – Dvorak12:12
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Garland9:10
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun20:16
xG 1.17–0.44 (73%)attempts 24–7goals 0–1
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin15:37
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Gross15:37
xG 0.62–0.60 (51%)attempts 14–17goals 3–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Bertuzzi – Larkin5:30
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Larkin – Fabbri3:00
xG 0.23–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin4:33
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Ehn2:28
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Green – Nemeth8:58
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Daley – Hronek5:36
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Nemeth – Hronek14:23
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).