Sun, Dec 22, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 5, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 211 | 210 | 530 |
| DAL | 17 | 011 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 12:49DALDenis GurianovAssists: Justin Dowling, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 12:28CGYMatthew TkachukPPGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 14:21CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 10:21CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Derek Ryan, David Rittich · Snap, 0.55 xG4–1
- P3 17:56CGYDerek RyanENAssists: Tobias Rieder, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.55 xG5–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:23CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:39DALRadek Faksa: Interference2 min
- P2 11:22DALCorey Perry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:00DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:52CGYTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:10CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:10CGYRasmus Andersson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:10DALAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:10DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:21DALDenis Gurianov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 16:26CGYZac Rinaldo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Ryan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk11:47
xG 0.84–0.74 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Rieder – Jankowski8:25
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan9:24
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan10:46
xG 0.48–0.49 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin14:20
xG 0.87–0.35 (72%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Brodie – Hanifin2:50
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stone – Andersson10:06
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Dowling – Janmark – Gurianov3:29
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Seguin – Hintz6:33
xG 0.08–0.14 (36%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa6:50
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Benn – Dickinson5:52
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:15
xG 1.34–1.03 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:09
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Sekera – Polak9:45
xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).