Mon, Dec 23, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 216 | 314 | 110 | 640 |
| TOR | 312 | 08 | 519 | 839 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30TORJason SpezzaAssists: John Tavares, Ilya Mikheyev · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 3:40TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 5:10TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jason Spezza, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P1 13:49CARBrock McGinnAssists: Brett Pesce, Lucas Wallmark · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P1 19:35CARMartin NecasSHAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 15:09CARMartin NecasAssists: Erik Haula, Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 15:29CARErik HaulaAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
- P2 16:13CARAndrei SvechnikovSHAssists: Jordan Staal, Teuvo Teravainen · Backhand, 0.31 xG5–3
- P3 2:35TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Zach Hyman, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 5:58CARErik HaulaSHAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.00 xG6–4
- P3 11:01TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.07 xG6–5
- P3 11:54TORTyson BarrieAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Backhand, 0.08 xG6–6
- P3 12:00TORMitch MarnerGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG6–7
- P3 18:20TORPierre EngvallENAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:12CARBrett Pesce: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 13:28CARWarren Foegele: Holding2 min
- P1 17:56TORJake Muzzin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:00TORTravis Dermott: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:30CARNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:13TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Teravainen – Aho9:39
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas9:32
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark7:22
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov10:51
xG 0.29–0.85 (25%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin16:13
xG 0.81–0.64 (56%)attempts 17–22goals 0–0
- Gardiner – van Riemsdyk9:46
xG 0.47–0.46 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Slavin – Pesce2:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews12:15
xG 0.95–0.14 (87%)attempts 15–10goals 4–0
- Spezza – Tavares – Mikheyev2:55
xG 0.44–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
- Tavares – Marner – Matthews2:16
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Kapanen8:31
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl14:41
xG 1.01–0.62 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 2–2
- Holl – Rielly2:26
xG 0.24–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – Ceci3:21
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).