Mon, Dec 23, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 09 | 111 | 010 | 130 |
| TBL | 316 | 27 | 111 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41TBLBrayden PointAssists: Erik Cernak, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:06TBLVictor HedmanGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 18:03TBLMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 2:47FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Vincent Trocheck · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–3
- P2 5:53TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.39 xG1–4
- P2 9:52TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 18:05TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.05 xG1–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:46FLAMike Hoffman: Interference2 min
- P1 16:32FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:47TBLAlex Killorn: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:25TBLPatrick Maroon: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 5:43FLAAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:50TBLPatrick Maroon: Abuse of officials2 min
- P2 9:32FLAColton Sceviour: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:33TBLBrayden Point: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Dadonov – Vatrano3:58
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Connolly – Barkov – Vatrano4:36
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Acciari12:19
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Boyle – Dadonov – Hoffman2:42
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Weegar2:44
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown7:55
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Weegar – Brown6:11
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point10:31
xG 0.57–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–2goals 3–0
- Maroon – Gourde – Paquette9:21
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Joseph – Stephens8:32
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli12:40
xG 0.36–0.86 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev15:59
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:17
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Hedman – Rutta12:57
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).