Mon, Dec 23, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 1, Ottawa Senators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 014 | 111 | 019 | 144 |
| OTT | 110 | 011 | 29 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:06OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mark Borowiecki · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 15:12BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Evan Rodrigues · Deflected, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 5:16OTTJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Connor Brown · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 18:35OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Connor Brown · Other, 0.64 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:40OTTChris Tierney: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:41BUFJimmy Vesey: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:12BUFZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:47OTTVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Sheary – Rodrigues7:26
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Johansson – Skinner – Vesey11:27
xG 0.74–0.29 (72%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Lazar – Asplund4:58
xG 0.17–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel14:29
xG 0.79–0.98 (45%)attempts 17–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Dahlin4:56
xG 0.73–0.05 (94%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Jokiharju8:12
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen5:34
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk12:21
xG 1.02–0.83 (55%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair4:49
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Ennis – White4:28
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Namestnikov – White4:56
xG 0.03–0.12 (21%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Borowiecki2:09
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Brannstrom2:56
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chabot – Brannstrom2:03
xG 0.02–0.11 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).