Mon, Dec 23, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Arizona Coyotes 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 05 | 115 | 18 | 228 |
| NSH | 122 | 113 | 16 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:08NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Roman Josi, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 7:53NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Mattias Ekholm · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 18:07ARILawson CrouseAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 9:56NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Colin Blackwell, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 10:33ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Clayton Keller, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 18:41NSHDante Fabbro: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:47ARINick Schmaltz: Interference2 min
- P3 19:35NSHColton Sissons: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Dvorak – Crouse3:18
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Schmaltz – Keller13:39
xG 0.68–0.58 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Kessel – Hall – Dvorak10:13
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Stepan – Hall – Hinostroza3:16
xG 0.03–0.02 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson15:55
xG 1.16–0.83 (58%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun18:30
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Oesterle – Gross13:20
xG 0.55–1.50 (27%)attempts 15–23goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Grimaldi7:42
xG 0.98–0.12 (89%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Blackwell6:02
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg4:05
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Grimaldi2:53
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro18:24
xG 1.32–0.51 (72%)attempts 27–12goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis19:21
xG 1.29–0.68 (66%)attempts 21–17goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin9:35
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).