Mon, Dec 23, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 7, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 312 | 213 | 213 | 738 |
| VGK | 118 | 110 | 14 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37COLPierre-Edouard BellemarePPAssists: J.T. Compher, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:23VGKRyan ReavesAssists: Tomas Nosek, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 14:28COLMatt NietoAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 17:35COLNazem KadriUnassisted · Deflected, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 11:57VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–2
- P2 14:06COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 16:58COLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–2
- P3 2:06VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Nate Schmidt, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 3:57COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–3
- P3 16:53COLValeri NichushkinUnassisted · Deflected, 0.09 xG7–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:05VGKShea Theodore: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:11COLJoonas Donskoi: Holding2 min
- P2 8:49VGKDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:49COLValeri Nichushkin: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:45VGKNate Schmidt: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:45VGKMax Pacioretty: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:45COLMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:58VGKJonathan Marchessault: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 2:38VGKNick Holden: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:32VGKNicolas Hague: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare8:07
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky9:22
xG 0.42–0.14 (76%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:25
xG 0.61–0.67 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Nieto – Compher – Jost7:44
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Lindholm11:50
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Johnson – Girard2:50
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Graves16:09
xG 0.47–0.50 (49%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson6:31
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Zykov – Tuch6:01
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Smith – Stephenson – Carrier3:29
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Stone – Karlsson – Marchessault2:49
xG 0.04–0.02 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt16:47
xG 1.22–0.83 (59%)attempts 21–15goals 2–0
- Engelland – Holden7:38
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Holden – Theodore3:00
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).