Fri, Dec 27, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 5, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 215 | 110 | 15 | 535 |
| WPG | 112 | 17 | 210 | 00 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10STLJustin FaulkAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 19:14WPGGabriel BourqueAssists: Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:30STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 9:37WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 16:08STLTyler BozakPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, David Perron · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 3:12WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 5:10STLTyler BozakAssists: Robert Thomas, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.19 xG4–3
- P3 18:46WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–4
- OT 3:14STLDavid PerronGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.35 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:16STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:42WPGTucker Poolman: Holding2 min
- P2 15:07WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:31STLRobert Thomas: Holding2 min
- P3 2:26STLVince Dunn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:36STLJustin Faulk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:36WPGMark Scheifele: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Bozak – Thomas8:18
xG 0.53–0.09 (85%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Barbashev5:26
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sundqvist12:11
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou6:44
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 6–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Faulk16:20
xG 0.99–0.50 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- Faulk – Dunn2:38
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko14:38
xG 0.61–0.49 (55%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Shore – Harkins4:08
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bourque – Lowry – Appleton10:04
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine16:19
xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic10:32
xG 0.18–0.60 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Beaulieu10:11
xG 0.53–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Poolman – Morrissey20:12
xG 0.60–0.77 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Sbisa – Pionk15:28
xG 0.33–0.80 (29%)attempts 10–15goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).