Fri, Dec 27, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 6, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 213 | 111 | 39 | 633 |
| COL | 215 | 114 | 115 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33MINCarson SoucyAssists: Jordan Greenway, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:22MINEric StaalAssists: Kevin Fiala, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 18:24COLMatt CalvertAssists: Ian Cole, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 19:10COLGabriel LandeskogUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:18MINBrad HuntPPAssists: Mathew Dumba, Luke Kunin · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 19:12COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Deflected, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 1:33COLMatt CalvertAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 10:41MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Jonas Brodin, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–4
- P3 11:58MINVictor RaskGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 18:48MINRyan SuterENAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.50 xG6–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:11MINCarson Soucy: Interference2 min
- P2 1:10COLRyan Graves: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:39COLSamuel Girard: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:20MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min
- P3 18:44MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min
- P3 18:44COLNazem Kadri: Embellishment2 min
- P3 18:44COLNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Zuccarello11:20
xG 1.00–0.38 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Foligno – Rask – Hartman8:29
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Greenway – Kunin – Sturm12:37
xG 0.17–0.36 (33%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Fiala – Donato – Eriksson Ek9:23
xG 0.19–0.67 (22%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Dumba13:38
xG 0.96–0.38 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Brodin – Soucy15:27
xG 0.68–0.64 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 2–2
- Suter – Spurgeon17:58
xG 0.69–0.73 (49%)attempts 14–20goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:53
xG 0.74–0.62 (55%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare7:07
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky10:08
xG 0.33–0.63 (34%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Nieto – Compher – Jost7:58
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard2:41
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Graves12:54
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Graves – Makar3:10
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).