Fri, Dec 27, 2019·United Center, Chicago
New York Islanders 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 114 | 016 | 110 | 240 |
| CHI | 313 | 08 | 29 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50NYIRoss JohnstonAssists: Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 7:34CHIDennis GilbertAssists: Dylan Strome, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 9:46CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 11:56CHIAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 0:50CHIJonathan ToewsUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 3:03CHIMatthew HighmoreAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 16:32NYICasey CizikasSHAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 3:32CHIMatthew Highmore: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:57NYINick Leddy: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:51CHIOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:02NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:57NYIRoss Johnston: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:21NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:21NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:21CHISlater Koekkoek: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Dal Colle – Beauvillier8:52
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Kuhnhackl6:41
xG 0.30–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal13:22
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–2
- Bailey – Nelson – Johnston7:45
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Toews2:46
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy12:39
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 19–16goals 1–2
- Mayfield – Toews12:11
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – DeBrincat – Dach8:57
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Kane – Carpenter – Nylander11:12
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Quenneville9:51
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Smith – Highmore – Kampf8:21
xG 0.17–0.54 (25%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Koekkoek14:18
xG 0.67–0.63 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Keith – Gustafsson15:45
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 18–19goals 2–1
- Maatta – Gilbert14:04
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).