Sat, Dec 28, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Detroit Red Wings 4, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 217 | 16 | 116 | 439 |
| FLA | 111 | 314 | 15 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 9:29DETDarren HelmAssists: Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 10:07DETDylan LarkinAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Trevor Daley · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 0:46DETFrans NielsenSHAssists: Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P2 1:58FLABrett ConnollyPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 6:39FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Brian Boyle, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 6:48FLADominic ToninatoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 13:24FLAAnton StralmanGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 15:49DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Filip Hronek, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.52 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:15DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:39FLAMark Pysyk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:17DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26DETMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:19FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:49DETFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:49FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Glendening – Fabbri4:23
xG 0.31–0.19 (63%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Helm – Zadina3:57
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening2:18
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Larkin13:03
xG 0.77–0.80 (49%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Nemeth16:34
xG 1.17–0.75 (61%)attempts 23–20goals 0–1
- Daley – Green2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Daley – Hronek12:45
xG 0.70–0.81 (46%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestConnolly – Trocheck – Acciari11:37
xG 0.88–0.27 (77%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Boyle – Hoffman – Vatrano7:33
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:33
xG 0.45–0.72 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Toninato – Malgin6:58
xG 0.22–0.72 (23%)attempts 4–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Stillman14:27
xG 0.89–0.86 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Yandle – Pysyk14:13
xG 0.72–0.74 (49%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Matheson – Brown15:27
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).