Sat, Dec 28, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Nashville Predators 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 317 | 121 | 448 |
| PIT | 317 | 19 | 210 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 1:05PITDominik KahunAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Juuso Riikola · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 9:04PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 4:07NSHViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–3
- P2 8:02PITAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: John Marino, Juuso Riikola · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 16:03NSHCraig SmithAssists: Colin Blackwell, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 19:01NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
- P3 8:56NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 18:57PITJake GuentzelPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–5
- P3 19:22PITBryan RustENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:01NSHKyle Turris: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:41PITSam Lafferty: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:31NSHKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:53NSHCraig Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 4:37PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:34NSHAustin Watson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg12:43
xG 0.93–0.23 (80%)attempts 20–7goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson10:07
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Bonino – Watson – Grimaldi7:53
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Turris – Smith – Blackwell10:41
xG 0.66–0.76 (46%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis20:09
xG 1.26–0.74 (63%)attempts 27–11goals 3–1
- Weber – Tinordi9:22
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro19:52
xG 0.57–0.82 (41%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Guentzel15:24
xG 1.51–0.78 (66%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese9:29
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Galchenyuk – McCann – Kahun10:15
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Hornqvist – Lafferty – Simon8:47
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino15:52
xG 1.04–0.52 (67%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Riikola11:32
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 7–20goals 1–1
- Johnson – Letang20:22
xG 0.58–1.38 (30%)attempts 14–27goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).