Sat, Dec 28, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Arizona Coyotes 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 09 | 08 | 128 |
| VGK | 213 | 212 | 011 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:05VGKMark StonePPAssists: Alex Tuch, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 13:31ARIMichael GrabnerAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 15:06VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 0:12VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 1:54VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:29VGKRyan Reaves: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 7:35ARITaylor Hall: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:10VGKWilliam Carrier: Holding2 min
- P1 18:31ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:27VGKNick Holden: Interference2 min
- P2 10:23ARIChristian Dvorak: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:30VGKMax Pacioretty: Kneeing2 min
- P3 8:40VGKMax Pacioretty: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:40ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Hall – Dvorak5:10
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Garland2:47
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland5:15
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Richardson – Grabner – Hinostroza5:16
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson14:21
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun13:41
xG 0.59–0.87 (40%)attempts 20–15goals 0–2
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin15:23
xG 0.17–0.99 (15%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson9:45
xG 0.95–0.06 (95%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Stastny – Tuch – Glass8:15
xG 0.47–0.24 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:22
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:45
xG 0.49–0.54 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Merrill15:13
xG 0.97–0.47 (67%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Holden – Theodore12:25
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt14:48
xG 0.58–0.75 (44%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).