Mon, Dec 30, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 214 | 08 | 226 |
| PIT | 215 | 210 | 18 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jake Guentzel, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:44PITDominik SimonAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Patric Hornqvist · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 4:21OTTNick PaulAssists: Christian Jaros, Scott Sabourin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:02PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 15:58OTTNick PaulAssists: Connor Brown, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P2 16:51PITPatric HornqvistAssists: John Marino, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 6:55PITJake GuentzelAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:16OTTScott Sabourin: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:16PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:11PITJoseph Blandisi: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:51PITBryan Rust: Interference2 min
- P3 19:40OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:40OTTBrady Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:40OTTJean-Gabriel Pageau: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:40PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:40PITBryan Rust: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:40OTTMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Ennis – White8:13
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Ennis – Paul4:04
xG 0.05–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Duclair – White3:40
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk11:30
xG 0.64–0.67 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Chabot20:20
xG 1.11–0.93 (54%)attempts 25–18goals 1–3
- Englund – Brannstrom7:59
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Borowiecki – Jaros8:19
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Blandisi – Simon5:13
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Rust – Galchenyuk3:09
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Guentzel12:01
xG 0.84–0.70 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 3–1
- Hornqvist – McCann – Simon4:21
xG 0.15–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Letang18:41
xG 1.16–0.64 (64%)attempts 23–14goals 2–0
- Ruhwedel – Riikola14:06
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Marino18:16
xG 0.48–0.74 (39%)attempts 12–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).