Tue, Dec 31, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 115 | 16 | 429 |
| MIN | 07 | 114 | 06 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:55TORAlexander KerfootAssists: John Tavares, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:29TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 8:34TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 11:46MINRyan SuterPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 19:35TORJohn TavaresENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:03TORZach Hyman: Holding2 min
- P1 13:44MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:19TORDmytro Timashov: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:45MINKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:01MINRyan Donato: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:24TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander12:11
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Timashov – Brooks6:25
xG 0.13–0.13 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Kapanen – Engvall10:40
xG 0.43–0.44 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews11:28
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Dermott9:43
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Rielly – Ceci3:58
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Barrie – Rielly13:30
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foligno – Zuccarello7:41
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Rask – Hartman4:09
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala8:10
xG 0.13–0.15 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Rask – Hartman – Donato3:36
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon16:39
xG 0.87–0.58 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Hunt – Dumba13:57
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Brodin – Soucy15:05
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).