Tue, Dec 31, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 7, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 212 | 46 | 726 |
| COL | 117 | 115 | 211 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:25WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 9:43COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 8:27WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 13:47COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 14:53WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Neal Pionk · Slap, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 7:15COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 10:45WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 16:31WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 17:39WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Jack Roslovic, Nikolaj Ehlers · Backhand, 0.66 xG6–3
- P3 19:16COLNazem KadriAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–4
- P3 19:48WPGNikolaj EhlersENAssists: Jack Roslovic, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.60 xG7–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 10:22WPGLuca Sbisa: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:04WPGKyle Connor: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:47WPGAnthony Bitetto: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:47COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:05WPGKyle Connor: Cross checking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 10:38COLNazem Kadri: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wheeler won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestShore – Harkins – Appleton5:04
xG 0.21–0.12 (65%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic13:36
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine14:45
xG 0.70–1.10 (39%)attempts 11–21goals 2–0
- Perreault – Bourque – Lowry10:34
xG 0.10–0.73 (12%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey16:45
xG 0.64–0.51 (55%)attempts 9–18goals 2–0
- Sbisa – Pionk18:18
xG 0.61–1.21 (34%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Beaulieu9:55
xG 0.12–0.78 (13%)attempts 7–21goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Landeskog – MacKinnon14:07
xG 1.14–0.54 (68%)attempts 20–8goals 1–2
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Rantanen13:25
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare10:05
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Nieto – Compher – Jost8:19
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard17:01
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 27–11goals 1–0
- Cole – Zadorov12:49
xG 1.03–0.31 (77%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Cole – Graves2:01
xG 0.02–0.07 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).