Tue, Dec 31, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 5, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 112 | 412 | 533 |
| EDM | 311 | 314 | 16 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11EDMJames NealAssists: Zack Kassian, Oscar Klefbom · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 8:46EDMJames NealSHAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 11:13EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsSHAssists: Ethan Bear, Jujhar Khaira · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 13:11EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, James Neal · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–4
- P2 13:23EDMJames NealPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.08 xG0–5
- P2 15:04EDMJosh ArchibaldGWGAssists: Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–6
- P2 19:34NYRChris KreiderAssists: Artemi Panarin, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.42 xG1–6
- P3 4:38NYRRyan StromeAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.20 xG2–6
- P3 11:29NYRMarc StaalAssists: Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–6
- P3 12:07NYRArtemi PanarinUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG4–6
- P3 16:15NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Adam Fox, Tony DeAngelo · Snap, 0.03 xG5–6
- P3 18:53EDMKailer YamamotoENAssists: Jujhar Khaira · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:27EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:38NYRBrett Howden: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:20NYRRyan Strome: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 5:20EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:31NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:13EDMJujhar Khaira: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:13NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:13NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:11NYRChris Kreider: Bench2 min
- P2 17:15NYRFilip Chytil: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin11:15
xG 1.03–0.27 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:48
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko10:46
xG 0.47–0.56 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo8:25
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Skjei – Trouba14:30
xG 0.98–0.58 (63%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Fox4:21
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Kassian – McDavid12:34
xG 0.54–0.38 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Sheahan – Archibald – Haas8:07
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Gagner – Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira10:24
xG 0.51–0.85 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
- Draisaitl – Yamamoto – Nygard8:48
xG 0.30–0.85 (26%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear6:11
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Russell – Nurse11:32
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Klefbom – Bear11:45
xG 0.62–0.76 (45%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).