Thu, Jan 2, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Florida Panthers 6, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 415 | 19 | 631 |
| OTT | 212 | 06 | 113 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 10:59OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 15:39OTTChris TierneyAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 8:54FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P2 10:23FLANoel AcciariAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 19:08FLAFrank VatranoGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Dominic Toninato · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 19:55FLAColton SceviourAssists: Mark Pysyk, Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 17:15OTTConnor BrownAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–3
- P3 18:14FLAJonathan HuberdeauENAssists: Anton Stralman, Riley Stillman · Wrist, 0.52 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:10OTTMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:43FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:33OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P2 8:23OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:42FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:32FLARiley Stillman: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Toninato – Vatrano6:29
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari11:18
xG 0.57–0.51 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov9:54
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Dadonov – Toninato2:35
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman12:34
xG 0.50–0.37 (58%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Matheson – Brown12:10
xG 0.28–0.33 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad10:19
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Duclair – Tkachuk4:34
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Namestnikov – Sabourin5:15
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Tierney – Duclair – Balcers3:33
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Pageau – Brown – Paul8:49
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Jaros9:10
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Chabot14:47
xG 0.38–0.20 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Chabot – Brannstrom2:16
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).