Thu, Jan 2, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Rangers 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 27 | 111 | 09 | 327 |
| CGY | 39 | 110 | 010 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15CGYJohnny GaudreauUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 7:16CGYMikael BacklundSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 7:42NYRJacob TroubaPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P1 8:07NYRFilip ChytilPPAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox · Backhand, 0.27 xG2–2
- P1 13:18CGYDerek RyanAssists: Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 5:46NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Adam Fox, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P2 8:22CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:59CGYSam Bennett: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:48CGYDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:06NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:17NYRChris Kreider: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:21NYRBrady Skjei: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:11CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:08NYRKaapo Kakko: Holding2 min
- P3 13:41CGYMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:41NYRRyan Lindgren: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich9:43
xG 0.19–0.13 (58%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin9:33
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko8:01
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren5:32
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Trouba – Fox2:30
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Fox4:13
xG 0.13–0.06 (71%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Bennett – Ryan4:33
xG 0.43–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube4:28
xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Backlund – Gaudreau – Monahan11:43
xG 0.34–0.35 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Rieder – Jankowski – Dube2:54
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin17:02
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:59
xG 0.13–0.17 (45%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Brodie – Andersson2:22
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).