Thu, Jan 2, 2020·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 2, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 113 | 17 | 08 | 228 |
| ARI | 113 | 08 | 313 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:28ARILawson CrouseAssists: Phil Kessel, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:28ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Isac Lundeström, Maxime Comtois · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 2:24ANAMax JonesAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 0:26ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Taylor Hall, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 6:47ARIBrad RichardsonGWGAssists: Christian Fischer, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 7:49ARICarl SoderbergAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.26 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:43ANAAdam Henrique: Interference2 min
- P2 17:37ARIBrad Richardson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:21ANAOndrej Kase: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:26ANAMichael Del Zotto: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Deslauriers – Shore – Rowney7:45
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Carrick13:28
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Kase – Steel – Jones11:26
xG 0.44–0.93 (32%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Silfverberg – Comtois – Lundeström11:28
xG 0.23–0.93 (20%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Manson – Lindholm16:46
xG 0.25–0.73 (26%)attempts 15–21goals 1–2
- Fowler – Gudbranson17:07
xG 0.39–1.03 (28%)attempts 15–24goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Larsson14:06
xG 0.47–1.19 (28%)attempts 12–22goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Hinostroza – Fischer9:11
xG 0.82–0.20 (81%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland11:39
xG 0.83–0.26 (76%)attempts 16–13goals 1–1
- Soderberg – Schmaltz – Keller11:27
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Crouse10:56
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson17:19
xG 1.41–0.23 (86%)attempts 33–11goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Lyubushkin12:11
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Goligoski – Chychrun19:01
xG 0.97–0.92 (51%)attempts 17–21goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).