Thu, Jan 2, 2020·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Vancouver Canucks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 112 | 313 | 18 | 533 |
| VAN | 17 | 318 | 312 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:04VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 14:00CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 2:48VANTanner PearsonAssists: Alexander Edler, Jake Virtanen · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 4:15CHIDavid KampfAssists: Zack Smith, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 6:25CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Adam Boqvist · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 8:17CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 10:20VANQuinn HughesPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P2 11:45VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 8:10VANBo HorvatAssists: Alexander Edler, Tanner Pearson · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 13:44CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–5
- P3 15:49VANAdam GaudetteGWGAssists: J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–6
- P3 19:51VANBo HorvatENAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.51 xG5–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:02CHIDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 6:08VANBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:05VANTyler Myers: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:00VANAdam Gaudette: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:11CHIZack Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:37CHIErik Gustafsson: Holding2 min
- P2 14:37VANTroy Stecher: Holding2 min
- P3 17:19VANTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kubalik – Quenneville6:44
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 2–2
- Strome – DeBrincat – Dach11:39
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Kubalik2:48
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Smith – Highmore – Kampf6:51
xG 0.18–0.28 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Gustafsson2:54
xG 0.02–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Murphy2:48
xG 0.05–0.10 (32%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Keith – Boqvist13:14
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Pearson – Horvat10:27
xG 1.11–0.25 (81%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Pettersson13:58
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
- Roussel – Virtanen – Gaudette7:44
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte6:34
xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Hughes2:44
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Edler – Stecher14:26
xG 0.77–0.65 (54%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hughes12:12
xG 0.59–0.56 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).