Fri, Jan 3, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 214 | 28 | 429 |
| CAR | 018 | 08 | 315 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:58WSHRichard PanikAssists: Lars Eller · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:07WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 0:39CARJordan StaalAssists: Brett Pesce, Andrei Svechnikov · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 2:29WSHLars EllerPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.41 xG3–1
- P3 4:51WSHJakub VranaGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 6:35CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 12:35CARRyan DzingelAssists: Martin Necas, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:14WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:26WSHIlya Samsonov: Embellishment2 min
- P1 11:26CARNino Niederreiter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:16WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P1 0:00WSHNic Dowd: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:17CARSebastian Aho: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:12WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:43CARSebastian Aho: Interference2 min
- P2 16:18WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:53CARErik Haula: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:27WSHCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:59WSHT.J. Oshie: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:16CARDougie Hamilton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Eller – Panik8:24
xG 0.98–0.41 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana7:44
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Leipsic – Hathaway3:33
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway3:21
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Kempny2:28
xG 0.73–0.05 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen9:57
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov3:47
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov7:05
xG 0.93–0.26 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 1–1
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark5:41
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho10:45
xG 0.32–0.44 (42%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas7:05
xG 0.33–1.07 (23%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin11:04
xG 1.45–0.18 (89%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce5:23
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Pesce7:46
xG 0.49–0.78 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).