Sat, Jan 4, 2020·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 2, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 09 | 214 | 234 |
| BUF | 15 | 28 | 05 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:35BUFConor ShearyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jimmy Vesey · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:42BUFSam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Marcus Johansson · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 12:40FLAMike MathesonAssists: Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 18:50FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:34BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:18BUFConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:05BUFColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:33FLAAnton Stralman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:05FLAJoshua Brown: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 10:05BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43FLAJoshua Brown: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Toninato – Vatrano6:35
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Connolly – Barkov3:48
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari5:10
xG 0.09–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Acciari4:14
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad9:42
xG 0.48–0.13 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Matheson – Brown6:22
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad2:13
xG 0.01–0.03 (27%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Eichel – Asplund8:06
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Vesey – Sheary5:19
xG 0.14–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:21
xG 0.06–0.39 (14%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen7:38
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bogosian – McCabe6:14
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin2:13
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).