Tue, Jan 7, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Arizona Coyotes 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 011 | 316 | 210 | 537 |
| FLA | 016 | 210 | 013 | 239 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:20ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Taylor Hall, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 11:21FLANoel AcciariAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 11:57FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Riley Stillman, Dominic Toninato · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 13:33ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Derek Stepan, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 15:39ARITaylor HallSHGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 17:58ARICarl SoderbergSHAssists: Jason Demers · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 19:12ARILawson CrouseENAssists: Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:29ARILawson Crouse: Interference2 min
- P2 9:35FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:49FLAAleksander Barkov: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:49ARIChristian Fischer: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:05FLABrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:58ARITaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Dvorak – Garland10:55
xG 0.58–0.27 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stepan – Crouse9:40
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Schmaltz – Keller11:38
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Richardson – Hinostroza – Fischer8:44
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Lyubushkin13:13
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun18:30
xG 0.61–0.80 (43%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson18:06
xG 0.65–1.32 (33%)attempts 13–26goals 2–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov14:48
xG 0.91–0.61 (60%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
- Sceviour – Hawryluk – Malgin6:00
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari13:09
xG 0.86–0.90 (49%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Toninato – Vatrano8:37
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad15:22
xG 0.80–0.48 (63%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad2:23
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Stralman – Stillman16:03
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).