Tue, Jan 7, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Carolina Hurricanes 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 110 | 13 | 00 | 421 |
| CAR | 216 | 29 | 07 | 11 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Robert Hagg, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:57PHIMichael RafflAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P1 9:40CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Brock McGinn, Jordan Martinook · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 15:27CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Jordan Staal, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 3:12CARJake GardinerAssists: Sebastian Aho, Warren Foegele · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 4:57CARJoel EdmundsonAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 14:27PHINicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 15:49PHITravis SanheimAssists: Philippe Myers, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–4
- OT 1:56CARDougie HamiltonGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.15 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:39CARErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:06PHITyler Pitlick: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:54CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Raffl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Laughton – Vorobyev – Farabee7:28
xG 0.10–0.18 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny13:02
xG 0.75–0.83 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Aube-Kubel10:51
xG 0.21–0.52 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Voracek – Pitlick – Raffl11:02
xG 0.92–1.23 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – Myers16:28
xG 0.70–0.81 (46%)attempts 15–15goals 1–3
- Niskanen – Provorov19:17
xG 0.68–1.01 (40%)attempts 7–23goals 0–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg12:23
xG 0.75–1.10 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov11:50
xG 1.33–0.70 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho11:44
xG 0.68–0.30 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Martinook – McGinn – Wallmark10:17
xG 0.59–0.24 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Staal – McGinn – Foegele2:02
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Pesce15:02
xG 0.99–0.49 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Fleury10:38
xG 0.70–0.52 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Hamilton – Slavin19:19
xG 1.11–0.99 (53%)attempts 21–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).