Tue, Jan 7, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 3, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 110 | 110 | 326 |
| DET | 012 | 111 | 37 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48MTLArtturi LehkonenSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 6:31MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Max Domi, Ilya Kovalchuk · Backhand, 0.37 xG2–0
- P2 12:22DETFrans NielsenAssists: Givani Smith, Madison Bowey · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 0:51DETRobby FabbriAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 6:13MTLVictor MeteAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Nick Suzuki · Deflected, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 11:19DETFrans NielsenAssists: Mike Green, Darren Helm · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 16:08DETFilip ZadinaGWGAssists: Adam Erne, Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:29MTLDale Weise: Interference2 min
- P1 12:13MTLNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:29DETMadison Bowey: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:46MTLTomas Tatar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:12DETAdam Erne: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:04DETPatrik Nemeth: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:16MTLNick Cousins: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 2:23DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:44DETPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Danault – Lehkonen5:57
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Domi – Suzuki7:38
xG 0.55–0.40 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 1–2
- Thompson – Weise – Vejdemo3:56
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weise – Poehling2:17
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Kulak2:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kulak – Mete9:01
xG 0.50–0.71 (41%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Weber – Chiarot10:29
xG 0.45–0.73 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Erne – Zadina6:48
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Fabbri10:47
xG 0.58–0.70 (45%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening5:38
xG 0.01–0.18 (8%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Smith5:39
xG 0.07–0.35 (17%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBowey – Hronek11:11
xG 0.79–0.29 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 2–1
- Biega – Lashoff7:42
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Green – Nemeth14:36
xG 0.42–0.85 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).