Tue, Jan 7, 2020·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 28 | 14 | 14 | 416 |
| VGK | 013 | 212 | 19 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:53PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Bryan Rust, Dominik Kahun · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:10PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Jack Johnson, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 4:18PITDominik KahunPPAssists: John Marino, Juuso Riikola · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 7:11VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 14:18VGKPaul StastnyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 2:15PITBrandon TanevGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Teddy Blueger · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 12:45VGKReilly SmithAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:08PITJohn Marino: Broken stick2 min
- P2 2:22VGKNicolas Hague: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18PITJack Johnson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:05VGKTomas Nosek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – McCann – Simon11:17
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese11:01
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Agozzino – Galchenyuk – Lafferty6:41
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Rust – Kahun13:46
xG 0.71–1.51 (32%)attempts 10–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson2:04
xG 0.07–0.01 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Riikola11:08
xG 0.15–0.38 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino16:05
xG 0.21–0.49 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone16:04
xG 1.82–0.49 (79%)attempts 28–7goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Stephenson10:42
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Reaves – Nosek – Roy5:09
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carrier – Tuch8:45
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt15:29
xG 1.21–0.86 (58%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Holden – Theodore17:10
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Engelland – Hague11:01
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).