Thu, Jan 9, 2020·TD Garden, Boston
Winnipeg Jets 4, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 16 | 28 | 17 | 421 |
| BOS | 112 | 212 | 212 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:14BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Joakim Nordstrom, Sean Kuraly · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 6:00WPGAndrew CoppPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 9:41BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 18:49BOSJake DeBruskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–3
- P2 19:52WPGNeal PionkAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 7:50WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Dmitry Kulikov · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 11:13BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk · Snap, 0.30 xG4–4
- P3 11:46BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 0:29WPGLuca Sbisa: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:23BOSDavid Backes: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:36WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:17BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Interference2 min
- P3 3:09WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:12WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Wheeler – Copp – Ehlers12:45
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Roslovic9:17
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Bourque – Shore – Appleton4:17
xG 0.07–0.38 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine14:15
xG 0.31–1.36 (19%)attempts 8–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Pionk7:11
xG 0.07–0.11 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Sbisa – Pionk11:28
xG 0.06–0.41 (14%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Bitetto2:11
xG 0.01–0.41 (2%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly7:29
xG 0.94–0.17 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–2
- Krejci – Bjork – DeBrusk10:31
xG 0.69–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:20
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Backes – Coyle – Heinen8:13
xG 0.15–0.13 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy18:08
xG 1.51–0.32 (82%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Kampfer – Moore9:45
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Krug – Carlo16:33
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).