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Ice Lab

Sun, Jan 12, 2020·Gila River Arena, Glendale

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Arizona Coyotes 3 (SO)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Arizona Coyotes

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.

ARI winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PIT1212217032434
ARI161719051327

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:43PITJared McCannPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:23ARIConor GarlandAssists: Taylor Hall, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. P2 3:51PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:51ARITaylor HallAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 11:28ARIDerek StepanAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P3 16:58PITBrandon TanevAssists: Juuso Riikola, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
  2. 2. ARI Nick Schmaltz stopped
  3. 3. PIT Kris Letang stopped
  4. 4. ARI Conor Garland stopped
  5. 5. PIT Bryan Rust scored
  6. 6. ARI Taylor Hall scored
  7. 7. PIT Jared McCann stopped
  8. 8. ARI Clayton Keller stopped
  9. 9. PIT Dominik Kahun stopped
  10. 10. ARI Phil Kessel stopped
  11. 11. PIT Alex Galchenyuk stopped
  12. 12. ARI Vinnie Hinostroza stopped
  13. 13. PIT Dominik Simon stopped
  14. 14. ARI Christian Dvorak stopped
  15. 15. PIT Teddy Blueger scored
  16. 16. ARI Carl Soderberg stopped
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 1:43ARIClayton Keller: Slashing2 min · PPG
  2. P1 2:25ARILawson Crouse: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  3. P1 10:04PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 0:00PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 3:21ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
  6. P2 5:58ARIChristian Fischer: Interference2 min
  7. P2 14:01PITAndrew Agozzino: Illegal check to head2 min
  8. P3 8:53PITAlex Galchenyuk: Interference2 min
  9. OT 3:39PITTeddy Blueger: Hooking2 min
  10. OT 3:39ARIConor Garland: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ARI
45% to win55% to win
← PIT attackARI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Malkin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITARI
34Shots on goal27
4.4Expected goals2.3
76Shot attempts46
23Faceoffs won30
4Power plays4
10Penalty minutes10
31Hits29
11Blocked shots17
6Giveaways13
3Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestBlueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese11:00

    xG 0.68–0.20 (77%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0

  2. Hornqvist – McCann – Simon11:02

    xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0

  3. Agozzino – Galchenyuk – Lafferty3:45

    xG 0.03–0.07 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0

  4. Malkin – Rust – Kahun12:04

    xG 0.70–0.81 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestRuhwedel – Riikola9:42

    xG 0.63–0.01 (99%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0

  2. Pettersson – Marino13:15

    xG 0.64–0.56 (54%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1

  3. Johnson – Letang16:25

    xG 0.45–0.74 (38%)attempts 14–15goals 0–2

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestSoderberg – Schmaltz – Keller8:17

    xG 0.17–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  2. Richardson – Hinostroza – Fischer4:56

    xG 0.17–0.06 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  3. Hall – Dvorak – Garland9:14

    xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0

  4. Kessel – Stepan – Crouse9:19

    xG 0.32–0.51 (38%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGoligoski – Chychrun15:02

    xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0

  2. Demers – Ekman-Larsson13:55

    xG 0.37–0.31 (54%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0

  3. Hjalmarsson – Chychrun2:31

    xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ARI 2.3 xGPIT 4.4 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ARIPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #111 of 1082 this seasonSwing 2.51 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 9% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50ARI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.

ARI winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (ARI − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).