Sun, Jan 12, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Florida Panthers 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 014 | 317 | 116 | 447 |
| FLA | 311 | 410 | 18 | 829 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49FLAJoshua BrownAssists: Brett Connolly, Vincent Trocheck · Slap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 3:47FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Mark Pysyk, Colton Sceviour · Snap, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 13:39FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Dominic Toninato, Frank Vatrano · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 0:49FLAMike MathesonAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Brett Connolly · Slap, 0.02 xG0–4
- P2 2:25FLAFrank VatranoSHGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.44 xG0–5
- P2 3:30TORZach HymanAssists: Morgan Rielly, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.22 xG1–5
- P2 5:46FLAVincent TrocheckUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–6
- P2 12:37FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Riley Stillman · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–7
- P2 13:00TORMitch MarnerAssists: Zach Hyman, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.19 xG2–7
- P2 15:26TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–7
- P3 0:34TORMitch MarnerAssists: Zach Hyman · Slap, 0.31 xG4–7
- P3 4:33FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.08 xG4–8
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:06FLANoel Acciari: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:29FLAMike Hoffman: Holding2 min
- P3 2:06TORCody Ceci: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:10TORJustin Holl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:36TORCody Ceci: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:40FLABrett Connolly: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews12:50
xG 1.43–0.12 (92%)attempts 18–5goals 2–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander9:49
xG 0.96–0.50 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 1–3
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Engvall8:18
xG 0.40–0.25 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Kapanen – Engvall2:47
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Dermott16:17
xG 1.95–0.89 (69%)attempts 27–8goals 1–2
- Barrie – Rielly15:44
xG 1.14–0.74 (61%)attempts 17–13goals 1–2
- Marincin – Ceci14:01
xG 0.74–0.46 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari12:07
xG 0.76–0.93 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 3–1
- Hoffman – Toninato – Vatrano10:47
xG 0.22–0.52 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:08
xG 0.57–1.34 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Brown12:32
xG 0.82–0.58 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Stralman – Stillman12:44
xG 0.81–0.86 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Matheson – Ekblad14:04
xG 0.35–1.80 (16%)attempts 6–22goals 2–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).