Tue, Jan 14, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 110 | 312 | 429 |
| TOR | 316 | 26 | 212 | 734 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18TORJohn TavaresSHAssists: Rasmus Sandin, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 9:10TORFrederik GauthierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 19:56TORZach HymanAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 2:12TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Pierre Engvall, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 6:56NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Miles Wood, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 10:39TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 3:58TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Slap, 0.20 xG1–6
- P3 12:00NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Nikita Gusev, Connor Carrick · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 15:35NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Will Butcher, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–6
- P3 18:02NJDP.K. SubbanPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.06 xG4–6
- P3 18:40TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:27TORPierre Engvall: Holding2 min
- P1 12:47NJDConnor Carrick: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:24NJDP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P2 4:38TORAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:34NJDBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:08NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:08TORPierre Engvall: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:02NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:55TORCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:40TORMartin Marincin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHayden – Rooney – Boqvist6:10
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Wood – Hughes4:45
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier4:51
xG 0.02–0.21 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Boqvist4:31
xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Severson11:43
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 14–5goals 0–2
- Carrick – Butcher14:29
xG 0.70–1.27 (35%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
- Greene – Subban11:39
xG 0.45–1.42 (24%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews11:20
xG 1.21–0.29 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Engvall9:27
xG 1.11–0.81 (58%)attempts 8–13goals 2–2
- Kerfoot – Johnsson – Kapanen11:01
xG 0.57–0.63 (48%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Spezza – Gauthier – Timashov6:27
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 3–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Marincin9:16
xG 1.62–0.29 (85%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Holl – Dermott16:01
xG 1.04–0.92 (53%)attempts 13–22goals 0–2
- Holl – Ceci2:06
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).