Tue, Jan 14, 2020·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Los Angeles Kings 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 211 | 013 | 115 | 02 | 1 | 341 |
| TBL | 29 | 010 | 115 | 04 | 2 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18LAKJeff CarterAssists: Kyle Clifford, Derek Forbort · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 6:52LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 10:06TBLAlex KillornAssists: Alexander Volkov, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 11:25TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 12:00LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Nikolai Prokhorkin, Sean Walker · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:45TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 2. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 4. LAK Nikolai Prokhorkin scored
- 5. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 6. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
- 7. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 8. LAK Dustin Brown stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 10:03LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20TBLTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:10TBLAlexander Volkov: Broken stick2 min
- P3 10:14TBLAlexander Volkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:01LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Brown – Clifford10:30
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 2–1
- Kempe – Amadio – Wagner8:57
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Lewis – Prokhorkin – Anderson-Dolan6:39
xG 0.33–0.46 (41%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo13:11
xG 0.29–0.69 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Walker12:42
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Martinez – Doughty20:26
xG 0.48–0.84 (36%)attempts 15–18goals 1–1
- Hutton – Roy14:26
xG 0.27–0.73 (27%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Cirelli13:07
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Gourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens4:53
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point14:17
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Killorn – Paquette – Volkov7:10
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta15:45
xG 0.92–0.24 (79%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev2:43
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Sergachev15:13
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).