Tue, Jan 14, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Minnesota Wild 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 010 | 111 | 28 | 329 |
| PIT | 28 | 212 | 39 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:57PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 17:57PITJared McCannAssists: Dominik Simon, John Marino · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 14:04PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Dominik Kahun · Snap, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 15:05PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 17:17MINZach PariseAssists: Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 2:15MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 7:41PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jared McCann · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 8:20PITDominik SimonAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–6
- P3 16:57PITAlex GalchenyukAssists: Andrew Agozzino, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.11 xG2–7
- P3 19:47MINZach ParisePPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:28MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:09MINKevin Fiala: Holding2 min
- P1 13:44PITAndrew Agozzino: Interference2 min
- P1 19:30MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:18MINMats Zuccarello: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:50PITJared McCann: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zuccarello – Zucker11:55
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin11:59
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Koivu – Parise – Fiala9:29
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Rask – Hartman – Greenway8:24
xG 0.21–1.12 (16%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon6:37
xG 0.28–0.23 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Soucy10:48
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba12:30
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rust – Kahun10:45
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – McCann – Simon10:57
xG 0.57–0.25 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese13:04
xG 0.18–0.53 (26%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Agozzino – Galchenyuk7:47
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Letang16:21
xG 0.89–0.71 (55%)attempts 13–15goals 3–1
- Pettersson – Marino15:16
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Riikola11:52
xG 0.09–0.26 (27%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).