Thu, Jan 16, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
San Jose Sharks 0, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 011 | 08 | 027 |
| COL | 213 | 218 | 07 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:45COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 19:57COLCale MakarAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 9:59COLRyan GravesAssists: Vladislav Kamenev · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 12:42COLMatt CalvertSHAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:17SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:53COLMikko Rantanen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:35COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:38SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:38COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:33SJSBrenden Dillon: Holding2 min
- P3 15:43COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:43SJSStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:43COLNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:43SJSTimo Meier: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:43SJSEvander Kane: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Sorensen – Karlsson5:18
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Thornton – Marleau – Meier2:09
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Kellman2:07
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Noesen – Kellman2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Heed – Ferraro2:01
xG 0.08–0.08 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Dillon – Heed3:12
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro2:22
xG 0.01–0.08 (13%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin9:26
xG 0.99–0.25 (80%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Nieto – Kamenev – Jost6:27
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:08
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Calvert – Compher – Bellemare6:55
xG 0.17–0.15 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Makar10:35
xG 0.64–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard12:22
xG 0.77–0.21 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar2:59
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).