Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 211 | 112 | 330 |
| EDM | 38 | 310 | 19 | 727 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56EDMJosh ArchibaldSHAssists: Riley Sheahan, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 14:02EDMSam GagnerAssists: Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 16:06EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.31 xG0–3
- P2 1:00EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 4:49EDMJoakim NygardAssists: Riley Sheahan · Snap, 0.08 xG0–5
- P2 5:20ARITaylor HallAssists: Conor Garland, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
- P2 9:13ARIChristian DvorakPPAssists: Conor Garland, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–5
- P2 16:06EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Josh Archibald, James Neal · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–6
- P3 11:12ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Carl Soderberg · Snap, 0.05 xG3–6
- P3 16:14EDMRiley SheahanENAssists: Josh Archibald · Snap, 0.60 xG3–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:30EDMSam Gagner: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:37ARIPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:43ARIConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 8:19EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:35ARIDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25EDMAdam Larsson: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:17ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:56EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Stepan – Crouse9:45
xG 0.43–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Chaput – Hinostroza – Keller2:01
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hall – Dvorak – Garland10:14
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Soderberg – Grabner – Schmaltz2:35
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Chychrun2:08
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Capobianco5:20
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson6:16
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:44
xG 0.91–0.42 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Neal – Archibald – McDavid9:54
xG 0.63–0.45 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – Haas8:51
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Russell – Nygard9:32
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 2–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear17:07
xG 1.10–0.66 (62%)attempts 22–16goals 3–0
- Larsson – Klefbom12:23
xG 0.86–0.55 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Russell – Jones13:05
xG 0.34–0.36 (48%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).