Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 015 | 014 | 213 | 242 |
| OTT | 13 | 28 | 210 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:15OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Anthony Duclair, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 11:04OTTChris TierneyAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Connor Brown · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 16:53OTTConnor BrownPPGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–3
- P3 5:30OTTColin WhiteAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–4
- P3 14:09CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 16:46OTTVladislav NamestnikovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–5
- P3 18:02CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:49OTTDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P2 6:51OTTColin White: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:16CGYMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:43OTTChris Tierney: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tkachuk won the faceoff against Tkachuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk13:50
xG 0.96–0.22 (81%)attempts 24–5goals 0–1
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube11:42
xG 1.10–0.49 (69%)attempts 22–7goals 1–0
- Rieder – Jankowski – Bennett7:19
xG 0.34–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Rieder – Jankowski2:59
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin13:28
xG 0.71–0.01 (98%)attempts 21–2goals 1–1
- Andersson – Kylington14:24
xG 0.83–0.48 (64%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:27
xG 1.10–0.93 (54%)attempts 23–13goals 1–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Brown12:00
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Boedker – Sabourin – Chlapik2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- White – Chlapik – Batherson2:35
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Boedker – Ennis – White5:40
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Zaitsev13:16
xG 0.44–0.54 (45%)attempts 5–21goals 1–2
- DeMelo – Reilly14:11
xG 0.52–0.81 (39%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Chabot17:36
xG 0.34–1.30 (21%)attempts 8–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).